UK Trade With Germany Fell In 2021 As ‘Brexit Left Its Mark’ – Business Live

The UK’s competition watchdog has announced that industry rules setting out how grocery retailers should treat their suppliers will now apply to Amazon.

The Competition and Markets Authority took the move, due to Amazon’s increasing activity in the UK groceries’ sector, through its Amazon Fresh home delivery service and stores, and Fresh & Wild Limited service.

Adam Land, senior director for remedies, business and financial analysis at the CMA, said:

“Households across the UK are increasingly using Amazon to buy food and other essential items. Today’s decision to designate Amazon helps to ensure a level playing field for companies active in the groceries sector as people’s buying habits evolve.

“These rules mean that the thousands of companies supplying Amazon with groceries are now protected from potential unfair business practices.

“We’ll continue to keep a close eye on the sector to make sure all major grocery retailers are bound by the same rules.”

British households’ confidence in their financial outlook has fallen to its lowest in eight years, as the cost of living crisis hits.

Polling company YouGov and economic consultancy Cebr have reported that consumer confidence dropped this month to the lowest since last March, as people worry about rising prices, tax increases and their job security.

The index of households’ expectations for their financial situation in 12 months’ time tumbled by 4.5 points to 79.1, the lowest since October 2013.

The drop in consumer confidence highlights the impact of the rising cost of living on household sentiment, says Sam Miley, senior economist at Cebr:

Away from the headline indicator, consumers’ assessment of their finances over the coming year provides for a particularly stark reading – reaching a near nine-year low. Rising inflation and the planned uplift to National Insurance contributions are just two likely factors behind this weaker outlook.

This sentiment is also mirrored in Cebr’s latest forecasts, with real disposable incomes expected to fall year-on-year and the household savings ratio set to narrow significantly.”

Whether you’re renting or buying, the cost of painting your home will have risen, and it’s probably going to get worse.

Dulux paint maker AkzoNobel increased its decorative paints pricing by 6% last year, and were 10% higher year-on-year in Q4, as it passed on some of the surge in raw materials costs to customers.

Prices for Performance Coatings (used on industrial machinery, buildings, boats and aeroplanes) rose 8% in 2021, and by 14% year-on-year in Q4.

AkzoNobel told shareholders that operating income jumped 16% last year, as “Significant price increases and volume increases” helped offset commodity inflation and supply constraints.

But operating income in Q4 was down 16%, as raw material and other variable costs increased by €325m.

It told shareholders that raw material cost inflation and supply constraints are “expected to gradually ease by mid-2022”.

AkzoNobel CEO, Thierry Vanlancker said the company it ‘on track’ to offset rising costs (by raising prices):

“With our full-year 2021 results we delivered a sixth consecutive quarter of revenue growth. Our teams were quick to act with strong pricing in response to around 770 million euros of raw material inflation.

This extraordinary achievement allowed us to deliver a 2021 profit in line with prior year. As we continue to drive forward, we are on track to offset this headwind by Q1 2022.

Joanna Partridge

In other property news… the average cost of renting a home in the UK is approaching £1,000 a month, according to new analysis, as rents continue to climb amid soaring demand.

Renters around the UK are now paying £62 more each month than before the pandemic, taking the average monthly rent to £969, according to property website Zoopla.

This means that the average annual rent for people who are agreeing a new let is now £744 higher than it was in March 2020 before Covid.

The rate at which rents are rising reached 8.3% in the final three months of 2021, which is a 13-year high.

The increase in housing costs will put further pressure on households, who are already feeling the squeeze from rising energy bills and wider price rises.

Rising rents will also make life difficult for people who are looking to get on the property ladder, at a time when the price of the average UK home reached a record high of £276,759 in January, which is £24,500 higher than a year earlier, according to Halifax.

Over the past year, rents have risen in every region of the UK, Zoopla found, with the strongest growth of 10.3% seen in London, followed by Northern Ireland (10.2%) and Wales ( 9.8%). The increases were the weakest in Scotland, where they reached 4.8%, and north east England where they rose by 6%.

However, rents in the capital are only £18 a month higher than they were in March 2020, because they fell during the pandemic.

Renters including office workers and students are now returning to the centres of the country’s largest cities – including London, Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds and Edinburgh – after the ‘race for space’ during the pandemic saw many people look to move to commuter areas.

Here’s some reaction:

Housebuilder Barratt plans to build an extra 250 more homes than previously forecast, despite concerns that rising interest rates dampens the housing market.

Barratt told the City it now expects to complete between 18,000 and 18,250 homes in the financial year to 30th June, an increase of 250 on its previous guidance.

Barratt cited its strong order book position, the continued strength in housing demand, and expected further growth in construction activity at building sites, with 14% more houses being built than a year ago.

That would beat the 17,243 homes completed last year (to 30 June 2021), and above pre-pandemic levels.

Total completions in the last six months of 2021 are down 11% year-on-year, with revenues down 10%, due to the surge in activity in the second half of 2020 after the first lockdown lifted.

Barratt is also confident that the market can handle higher interest rates – with the Bank of England having raised Bank Rate twice in the last two months.

It says it is seeing strong demand, with “strong total forward sales” at 30 January 2022 of 15,736 homes, higher than the 14,289 homes on 31 January 2021.

CEO David Thomas told Reuters:

“Affordability for the consumer is in a relatively good place and that is because interest rates have been and continue to be so low,”

“So once we understand that interest rates are rising – and we saw a base rate increase last week … affordability remains more than historic benchmarks, but we will clearly keep that under review.”

On Monday, Halifax predicted that prices will slow considerably this year, as households are squeezed by rising inflation.

Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown, cautions that demand could soon peak:

Barratt Developments is certainly making hay while the sun shines as first timers rush to get onto the ladder and other buyers trade up for bigger homes, desperate for more space to meet new hybrid work needs. But with indications that house price growth has slowed, there are still concerns this buoyant book of orders will start to thin out, particularly as the cost of living squeeze intensifies and rate rises come in quick succession.

The cheap loan party isn’t expected to last forever, and as homebuyers reassess their spending priorities, house builders could soon be facing a more difficult trajectory. It isn’t immune to higher prices, with build cost inflation expected to reach 6% but it’s expecting to pass on those costs to customers with the overall effect on margins neutral or even positive. How long homebuyers will swallow higher prices is unclear, however the ongoing lack of affordable housing could provide a tailwind of resilience.’’

In the City, shares in airport services group John Menzies have jumped by 34%, after it rebuffed a takeover approach from a Kuwait firm.

John Menzies says it has rejected an “unsolicited and highly opportunistic approach” from Kuwait’s Agility Public Warehousing, which valued it at around £469m.

The bid was worth 510p per share, or roughly 50% above Menzies’ closing price last night. Shares have now jumped to 450p, their highest since January 2020, just before Covid-19 hit the global economy.

Menzies started out as a single Edinburgh bookshop in 1833, before opening bookstores at railway stations and on high streets, and running wholesale newspaper and magazine distribution, and later cargo transport.

It is now a ‘pure play’ aviation business, operating ground handling, cargo handling, cargo forwarding and plane fuelling services at over 200 airports in 37 countries.

Having been disrupted by the pandemic, Menzies says it is now “well-positioned” for the recovery in the aviation sector – which it insists isn’t recognised in today’s offer.

Menszies says its “pipeline of opportunities” is full, as it focuses on air cargo services, new fuelling operations and high quality ground handling, targeting emerging markets where margins are typically higher.

Philipp Joeinig, Chairman and CEO of John Menzies plc, said:

“The Board of Menzies has unanimously rejected this unsolicited and highly opportunistic Proposal, which we believe does not reflect Menzies’ true intrinsic business worth or its prospects.

Menzies continues to make good progress with strong performance across a number of service lines, which together with productivity gains, saw the Group to finish last year strongly. This strong performance and momentum in 2021 has continued in 2022 with further contract wins and renewals alongside the continued recovery of global flight volumes.

Joanna Partridge

Merger talks between mutual insurer LV= and Royal London have broken down.

It is the second time within two months that a deal to buy the 178-year-old firm, originally known as Liverpool Victoria, has collapsed.

LV= began discussions with its fellow mutual Royal London at the start of the year, after its members blocked a planned takeover by US private equity firm Bain Capital in December.

However, the company said in a statement to the London Stock Exchange that it had “become clear to LV= that our different mutual models mean such a merger would not be in the best interests of LV= members.”

Seamus Creedon, LV=’s interim chair, thanked Royal London for its engagement, saying LV= looks forward to operating alongside it as part of a “vibrant mutual sector”.

He added:

“The strength of LV=’s business performance over the past 18 months combined with its operational progress has strengthened the board’s belief in, and commitment to, the continuation of our status as an independent mutual.”

LV= had previously rejected an approach from Royal London last year, worth £10m more than Bain’s offer which would have ended LV=’s member-owned status.

That approach was slammed as a “hand grenade” by LV=, as it struggled to persuade members, and outsiders, that the Bain deal made sense.

Barry O’Dwyer, Group Chief Executive of Royal London, says today that it had engaged with LV= because it thought it didn’t have a future as a stand-alone firm.

“Mutuals are owned by their customers and are run for their benefit.

“Our offer to preserve LV=’s mutuality through a merger with Royal London was based on an understanding that LV= did not have a viable future as an independent company.

LV= also announced a boardroom clear out on Monday, following its failed, controversial demutualisation plan.

Julia Kollewe

GlaxoSmithKline made £1.4bn from Covid-related sales last year, mostly from its antibody drug Xevudy, as it unveiled better-than-expected results ahead of what its boss Dame Emma Walmsley describes as a “landmark year”.

Ahead of the spin-off and stock market flotation of its consumer arm this summer, GSK reported total sales of £34bn for 2021, similar to the previous year. The consumer healthcare business contributed £9.6bn, down 4% from 2020. GSK’s annual profit before tax fell to £5.1bn, from £6.4bn in 2020.

In the final quarter of the year, turnover rose 9% to £9.5bn, slightly ahead of analysts’ forecasts, while earnings per share were also better than expected at 25.6p.

Xevudy (sotrovimab), a monoclonal antibody developed by GSK in partnership with Vir Biotechnology, was approved by the UK drugs watchdog in early December. It is designed for people with mild to moderate Covid-19 who are at high risk of developing severe disease, and trials found it cut the likelihood of hospital admission and death by 79% in high-risk adults.

Walmsley said:

“This is going to be a landmark year for GSK, with a step-change in growth expected and multiple research & development catalysts, including milestones on up to seven key late-stage pipeline assets.

2022 is also the year when we demerge our world-leading consumer healthcare business.”

GSK’s vaccines sales dropped 10% to £1.8bn last year, as countries’ normal vaccination programmes were disrupted by the Covid-19 vaccination drive, hitting sales of the drugmaker’s shingles and meningitis jabs.

Oliver Rakau of Oxford Economics flags that net trade probably slowed Germany’s growth in the last quarter of 2021:

Here’s Claus Vistesen of Pantheon Macroeconomics on Germany’s trade data:

Economist Daniel Lacalle shows how Germany’s trade surplus fell in December, with imports (+4.7% month on month) outpacing exports (+0.9%)

Carsten Brzeski of ING says today’s trade data shows that ‘Brexit has left its mark on German trade’:

Looking at export destinations, 2021 clearly marks a structural shift, illustrating current themes including reshoring, slowing of Chinese growth and different ways to deal with the pandemic.

In 2021, the US was the single most important export destination for German exports, accounting for almost 9% of all exports. China comes in at number two but only marginally ahead of France.

The importance of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic has increased to unprecedented highs, accounting for a higher share of total German exports than China, Russia and Japan together. Finally, Brexit has left its mark on German trade as the UK dropped out of the five most important trading partners list, with German companies exporting more to Austria than to the UK.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

UK firms have missed out on a rebound in trade with Germany last year, as Brexit frictions and the pandemic continue to weigh on the economy.

New data from the Federal Statistical Office shows that imports from the UK into Germany tumbled by 8.5% during 2021, the first year since the Brexit free trade deal was agreed in late December 2020, to €32.1bn.

But other countries did much better. Total goods imports into Germany surged by 17.1% during the year to €1,202bn, as the easing of lockdown restrictions and vaccine rollouts spurred the global economic recovery last year.

That included a 16.8% rise in imports from Germany’s fellow European Union members, and a 20.8% rise in imports from China last year.

In December alone, German imports from the UK were down 18.2% year-on-year — as there was a rush of stockpiling in December 2020 as firms prepared for possible Brexit disruption.

The EU introduced checks on goods from Britain entering the bloc as soon as the Brexit deal came into effect, with experts warning that UK firms were losing their competitiveness.

The UK delayed its checks on goods coming in until 2022. But even so, German exports to the UK fell by 2.6% during 2021, to €65.4bn. Total German exports rose by 14% in the year, even as the pandemic continued to cause disruption to global supply chains.

Destatis says:

Compared with the same month last year, exports to the United Kingdom dropped by 7.6% to 5.0 billion euros in December 2021. Imports from the United Kingdom were down 18.2% to 2.6 billion euros.

In contrast, Germany’s exports to the US jumped by 18.0% during 2021, as the recovery in America’s economy spurred demand for industrial supplies, machinery and consumer goods.

This chart shows the details:

Destatis also reports that overall German exports were up by 0.9% month-on-month in December, with imports rising 4.7% compared with November 2021.

After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports were 6.8% and imports 23.5% higher than in February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the Covid-19 pandemic in Germany.

In 2021 as a whole, exports increased by 14.0% and imports by 17.1% compared with the previous year. Exports were 3.6% and imports 8.9% above the level of the pre-Covid year 2019.

This data rather chimes with the message from a group of MPs this morning, that the main impact of Brexit on UK firms had been “increased costs, paperwork and border delays”.

There could be worse to come as new import controls are introduced.

The cross-party Public Accounts Committee (PAC) reported that Brexit red tape has damaged Britain’s trade with the EU. The situation could worsen unless the government works with Brussels to reduce hold-ups at UK ports

German factories have also been hit by the supply chain crisis, so will be hoping the EU’s new multi-billion chip production plan can help them.

The €43bn scheme aims to overcome Europe’s dependency on Asian computer chip makers, as governments and businesses around the world battle shortages that experts believe could persist for much of the year.

We’ll hear from Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s chief economist, later when he speaks at the Society of Professional Economists annual conference, on the “UK Monetary Policy Outlook.”

European markets have open higher, with the FTSE 100 near a two-year high.

Some commodity prices are also under pressure, with aluminium hitting its highest since 2008 on Tuesday.

The agenda

• 9am GMT: Italian industrial production report for December
• Noon GMT: US weekly mortgage applications
• 1.10pm GMT: Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speech: ‘UK Monetary Policy outlook”
• 3.30pm GMT: EIA weekly oil inventory figures